The Russian president spoke about his plans for Ukraine and Russia
Putin's logic is actually very simple, and he never tried to hide it.
My opinion on what the Western media is claiming, that Russia is going to end the war and negotiate, is simple — I have yet to see any sign of that happening. Putin's words at the St Petersburg Economic Forum only reinforces this idea.
In reality, Putin's logic is very simple, and he never hid it: Ukraine is his subordinate territory. In his mind, he thought he had an easy and simple option, namely the physical capture of part of the territory, the overthrow of the current government, and the establishment of a controlled regime, but this did not happen. There is no hiding from him that he is playing the long game.
Russia is a large landmass with considerable mobilization capabilities and an economy capable of enduring sanctions. There are no domestic protests, uprisings, or dissent against this war. Even those who oppose it have stayed quiet and held their tongues. Therefore, he is prepared to come out on top in the long run, believing that if the war continues for an extended period of time it will drain our resources, erode our military power, and instill fatigue for Ukraine across both Eastern and Western nations.
It means that he is willing to bloody Ukraine and weaken it enough to impose his will on it and force some sort of agreement that will be acceptable to him. It is clear that he does not believe in the possibility of capturing all of Ukraine or even a significant part of it today, but he believes eventually he will succeed in this way. He radiates confidence in his ability to win.
I ascertain why he has been making statements lately - as it is out of character for him to speak out on war. From what I can fathom, an unfortunate event in the conflict triggered his public declaration of confidence. Putin's logic has remained firm since last April and he believes that victory is within reach, eventually if not soon; prepared to fight for a number of years if need be. What he recently said lends credence to these views and principles. Whether or not Putin is correct however, remains a mystery.
It's no secret that Russia holds a significantly higher number of weapons and equipment, and has a much larger economy--even with the sanctions in effect. Furthermore, it has significant mobilization resources, an expansive territory, plenty of natural resources and so on. This would suggest that an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is mathematically advantageous for the former. However, after 16 months of continuous fighting without any major territorial gains despite considerable losses on both sides, it's difficult to assess this situation exclusively through arithmetic criteria.
Only a few experts said it would not be clear how sanctions would start working until February or March of 2023. When the first package of sanctions was introduced, the main concern was how quickly the Russian economy would fall. In spite of the fact that sanctions have only recently begun to work, more or less effectively, the gaps are now visible, and its long and medium term consequences are still uncertain.
At this economic forum, Putin spoke extensively about the impressive progress of the Russian economy. He cited the near record-low unemployment rate as a significant accomplishment; however, there is an alternate view that this number has been achieved in an unusual manner. Reports from experts suggest that more than one-third of Russian businesses are facing an acute lack of personnel.
The same applies not only to industry, as they created Tasty and Point in place of McDonald's, but even they need more people due to migration and mobilization. Because they lack enough workers, they will have to violate their own rules, change legislation, and hire migrants without passports and students under 15 years old.
Russia has found a way to bypass sanctions and stay afloat despite them. However, it remains unclear for how long this can last and whether it will be able to endure additional restrictions or adjust to more complex situations. Aside from the shortage of workers, obtaining equipment is their biggest challenge. They do not manufacture any machines, presses or tools and rely on third countries and used materials from other markets to fill the gap. This is not a viable long-term solution, so they must explore new markets which requires time and effort; something that took Russia decades when penetrating European market but was lost quickly in a few months.
Replacing this piece of the economy in Asia, Africa, or Latin America requires time, experts - of which there is not enough - and money, which is lacking. Difficult processes have to be overcome to make this happen, and it brings us back to the question of Putin's position; he believes that he will come out on top in the long run whereas our opinion assumes that he will ultimately lose. This challenge will require increased support from our partners - a difficult situation for them to evaluate - while Ukraine should be ready for a protracted battle. Sadly, this war is ongoing and has exacted immense cost from the armed forces as well as the economy, infrastructure, financial system and even psychological and physical health of its citizens. In late 2019, there were already signs of exhaustion among Ukrainian society, elites and armed forces from this seemingly never-ending conflict.
It is clear that Ukrainian society, the Armed Forces, and the authorities are well-prepared for a long conflict; we must now ask ourselves what challenges still remain and how to persevere. The mood of the country, plus its determination and resources indicate an ability to stay strong in this unfortunate situation.
